The prediction markets sector is experiencing explosive growth in the United States in 2024-2025, with three major fintech players now competing for market share: Robinhood, Gemini, and Coinbase. These platforms are transforming how Americans can bet on real-world event outcomes, from political elections to sports performances and economic indicators. But who launched first? What are the key differences between these platforms? Here's a comprehensive analysis of the prediction markets revolution reshaping American finance.
Launch Timeline: Robinhood Leads the Pack
Robinhood: The Pioneer (October 2024 - March 2025)
Robinhood was the first of the three to enter the prediction markets space. The platform introduced its first event contracts in October 2024, just before the US presidential election, allowing users to trade on the outcome between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The success was immediate: over 500 million election contracts were traded in just one week after launch.
Building on this early success, Robinhood officially launched its prediction markets hub on March 17, 2025, featuring contracts on Fed interest rates and college basketball tournaments (March Madness). Since then, the platform has continuously expanded its offerings, quickly becoming the company's fastest-growing product line.
Key Robinhood Metrics:
- Over 11 billion contracts traded since launch
- More than 1 million active users
- $100 million in annualized revenue in 2025
- 20% growth between October and November 2025
- 3 billion contracts traded in November 2025 alone
As JB Mackenzie, VP & GM of Futures and International at Robinhood, stated: "We believe in the power of prediction markets and think they play an important role at the intersection of news, economics, politics, sports, and culture."
Gemini: The Regulatory Approach (December 2025)
Gemini took a different approach by investing in a lengthy regulatory approval process. The crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins filed its DCM (Designated Contract Market) license application with the CFTC as early as March 10, 2020 - well before the sector's explosion.
After a five-year regulatory process, Gemini Titan, Gemini's affiliated entity, finally received CFTC approval on December 10, 2025. The launch of Gemini Predictions™ followed immediately, with availability across all 50 US states by mid-December 2025.
The Gemini Approach:
- Proprietary DCM license (unlike Robinhood and Coinbase who rely on partners)
- Simple yes-or-no event contracts
- Examples: "Will one Bitcoin end this year higher than $200k?" or "Will Elon Musk's X end up paying the full $140 million fine to the European Commission in 2026?"
- Fee-free trading for a limited time at launch
- Available on web, iOS, and Android
As Tyler Winklevoss, Gemini's CEO, remarked: "Today's approval marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini."
Coinbase: The "Everything Exchange" (December 2025)
Coinbase was the last of the three to enter the market, announcing and launching its prediction markets during its "Coinbase System Update" event on December 17, 2025 - just one week after Gemini's approval.
The platform chose an integration approach with Kalshi, the regulated US prediction market operator, rather than developing its own regulatory infrastructure. This launch is part of Coinbase's broader strategy to become an "everything exchange."
The Coinbase Offering:
- Access to thousands of event contracts via Kalshi
- 24/7 trading with only a brief weekly maintenance window
- Full integration with stock trading, crypto, and futures
- Funding with USD or USDC from main Coinbase account
- Planned expansion to additional prediction market platforms
To learn more about Coinbase's overall strategy, check out our detailed article: Coinbase: Everything Exchange, Neobank & Financial Platform 2025.
Key Differences Between the Three Platforms
1. Regulatory Approach
Gemini stands out with its proprietary DCM (Designated Contract Market) license obtained after 5 years of CFTC review. This license places Gemini Titan on the same level as traditional exchanges like the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). It's the most secure and regulated approach, but also the longest to implement.
Robinhood initially launched its services via a partnership with Kalshi but has since announced the acquisition of MIAXdx (formerly LedgerX) in November 2025, in partnership with Susquehanna International Group. This acquisition will give Robinhood direct control over listing, clearing, and risk management. The new exchange is expected to be operational in 2026.
Coinbase opted for a pure partnership approach with Kalshi, enabling rapid launch without investing in proprietary regulatory infrastructure. The platform plans to integrate additional prediction market operators in the future.
2. Product Focus and Positioning
Robinhood clearly focuses on sports and adopts an interface similar to traditional sportsbooks. The platform offers:
- Preset combos similar to parlay bets
- Individual player performance contracts (prop bets)
- Ability to create custom combinations of up to 10 outcomes across NFL games (early 2026)
- Familiar user experience for sports betting enthusiasts
Gemini positions its prediction markets as a component of its "one-stop financial super app" integrating crypto, staking, crypto credit card rewards, and now event contracts. The approach is more holistic and oriented toward a complete financial ecosystem. Gemini also plans to expand its offering to crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts (perps).
Coinbase integrates prediction markets into its "everything exchange" vision, alongside stock trading (launched simultaneously), crypto, futures, and perpetuals. The goal is to create a single platform where users can trade all asset types - stocks, crypto, and event contracts - in one interface. Coinbase is also developing Coinbase Tokenize, an institutional platform for real-world asset tokenization, foreshadowing the future of tokenized stocks.
3. Fee Structure
All three platforms offer fee-free trading for a limited period at launch, a classic strategy to attract early users and generate liquidity.
- Robinhood: Transparent and low fees after the promotional period
- Gemini: Fee-free trading for a limited time
- Coinbase: No commission fees through its partnership with Kalshi
4. Market Coverage
Robinhood:
- Sports (NFL, NBA, March Madness, etc.)
- Economic indicators (Fed rates)
- Over 3 billion contracts traded in November 2025 alone
Gemini:
- Cryptocurrency prices (example: Bitcoin > $200,000?)
- Economic and political events
- Available across all 50 US states
Coinbase:
- Broadest coverage via Kalshi: sports, crypto, economics, politics, entertainment, technology, science
- Thousands of event contracts available
- New markets added regularly
The Central Role of Kalshi in the Ecosystem
Kalshi plays a crucial role in developing US prediction markets. Founded in 2019 and approved by the CFTC in 2020 as the first regulated exchange specifically for event contracts, Kalshi has become the partner of choice for platforms seeking rapid market access.
Key Kalshi Facts:
- First US DCM (Designated Contract Market) for event contracts
- $5 billion valuation in 2025
- $300 million Series D fundraising in 2025
- Over $1.3 billion in monthly volumes in September 2025
- Partnerships with Robinhood, Coinbase, and other platforms
- Robust regulatory infrastructure with full CFTC oversight
Kalshi enables its partners to avoid the lengthy regulatory approval process (like the 5 years required for Gemini) while operating within a clear legal framework. The platform provides liquidity, trading infrastructure, and regulatory compliance, allowing crypto exchanges and neobanks to focus on user experience and distribution.
The Regulatory Environment: Opportunities and Challenges
The prediction markets sector sits at the intersection of federal law (CFTC) and state gambling laws. While the CFTC considers event contracts as regulated financial derivatives, several US states classify them as illegal sports betting.
Regulatory Tensions:
- At least 8 states have issued cease-and-desist letters or opened investigations
- Connecticut, Massachusetts, Arizona, Pennsylvania have challenged platform legality
- Preemption debate: Does the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) override state laws?
Favorable Court Decisions:
- Nevada and New Jersey courts initially ruled in favor of Kalshi
- Federal appeals courts confirming CFTC authority over these markets
- November 2025: Robinhood and Kalshi victory against preliminary injunction from three California tribes
Despite these challenges, the regulatory environment is gradually improving, particularly with support from the Trump administration and the new CFTC leadership under Acting Chairman Caroline Pham, perceived as pro-innovation and pro-crypto.
Growth Prospects: A Multi-Trillion Market?
Deutsche Bank analysts forecast that US prediction markets could reach:
- At least 1 trillion contracts in 2027
- More than 5 trillion contracts in 2029
This exponential growth is driven by several factors:
- Democratization of Access: Mainstream platforms make these markets accessible to everyone
- Better Forecasting Than Polls: Traders have real financial incentives
- 24/7 Trading: Unlike traditional markets
- Asset Diversification: New asset class for investors
- Integration into Existing Ecosystems: No separate account needed
Competition Heats Up: Features and Innovations
Robinhood's Recent Innovations
In December 2025, Robinhood announced several new features:
- NFL Parlays and Prop Bets: Users can now trade preset combinations of game outcomes, totals, and spreads
- Custom Combos: Starting early 2026, users will create custom combinations of up to 10 outcomes across NFL games
- Robinhood Cortex: AI-powered investing assistant for prediction markets
- Portfolio-level Digests: Personalized insights tailored to holdings
The platform has already generated $100 million in annualized revenue, and prediction markets are on pace to become a $300 million business based on October figures.
Gemini's Strategic Vision
Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini's President, emphasized the platform's ambitions: "Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance."
Gemini is positioning prediction markets as part of building a "one-stop super app where customers can trade crypto, stake, earn crypto credit card rewards, stablecoin rewards, and more."
Coinbase's Integrated Approach
CEO Brian Armstrong framed the expansion during the December 17 showcase: "Coinbase is now the best place to trade every asset, not just crypto." The platform announced several complementary products:
- Stock Trading: Hundreds of top stocks based on market cap and trading volume
- Simplified Futures and Perpetuals: Easy-to-use derivatives trading
- Solana DEX Integration: Access to millions of tokens on Solana
- Coinbase Advisor: AI-powered financial advisor for investment recommendations
- Coinbase Tokenize: Institutional platform for tokenizing real-world assets
Conclusion: Three Strategies, One Objective
Robinhood, Gemini, and Coinbase are adopting different but complementary approaches to conquer the US prediction markets:
- Robinhood leads the market with early entry in October 2024, focusing on sports and familiar user experience, with a strategic acquisition to control its own infrastructure by 2026
- Gemini invested 5 years in a proprietary license for an ultra-regulated and secure approach, integrating prediction markets into its financial super app
- Coinbase capitalizes on its massive user base and Kalshi partnership for rapid launch, as part of its "everything exchange" strategy
With over 14 billion contracts already traded in 2025 and growth showing no signs of slowing, prediction markets represent a new frontier in American fintech. All three platforms are well-positioned to capture this growth, each with its distinctive strengths.
The race is on, but Robinhood's first-mover advantage has given it a significant head start. As Gemini and Coinbase now join the competition, the real winners will be American consumers who gain access to this innovative financial product through multiple trusted platforms.